It's almost time for the Gay Superbowl!!

Tonight, the 78^th Annual Academy Awards will be handed out, and I can't believe I've been so busy I haven't even made a post about them yet!

So here they go, my picks from this year's nominations (the 8 main categories, plus a few others):

Best Motion Picture of the Year:
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Munich
I'm rooting for Brokeback Mountain, which will probably win. I've seen all the nominated movies and my pecking order is this: Brokeback Mountain, Crash, Munich, Capote, Good Night, and Good Luck.

Best Achievement in Directing:
George Clooney for Good Night, and Good Luck.
Paul Haggis for Crash
Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain
Bennett Miller for Capote
Steven Spielberg for Munich
Again, I'm rooting for Brokeback Mountain's Ang Lee, who is the clear man to beat this year (he cleaned up every directing award this season). Granted, all other directors deserve the award as well, they were all superb.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role:
Philip Seymour Hoffman for Capote (2005)
Terrence Howard for Hustle & Flow (2005)
Heath Ledger for Brokeback Mountain (2005)
Joaquin Phoenix for Walk the Line (2005)
David Strathairn for Good Night, and Good Luck. (2005)
I haven't seen Howard or Phoenix, but my favorites are Brokeback Mountain's Ledger and Capote's Hoffman. They were both great and both played gay man, which means we win no matter what, but I'd vote for Ledger just because he had more to do with less. Hoffman, however, is the clear favorite, having won almost every prize out there.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:
Judi Dench for Mrs. Henderson Presents (2005)
Felicity Huffman for Transamerica (2005)
Keira Knightley for Pride & Prejudice (2005)
Charlize Theron for North Country (2005)
Reese Witherspoon for Walk the Line (2005)
Amazingly, I haven't seen ANY of the nominees in this category, so my vote would go to the one actress playing a transgender character, Transamerica's Huffman, but mostly because I read only raves about the performance and because I really like Felicity. However, the favorite leading up to the ceremony is Walk the Line's Witherspoon, who again has won almost every award handed out. The consolation? If Reese wins at least we'll get to see her husband, the fabulous Ryan Phillippe, elated.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role:
George Clooney for Syriana (2005)
Matt Dillon for Crash (2004)
Paul Giamatti for Cinderella Man (2005)
Jake Gyllenhaal for Brokeback Mountain (2005)
William Hurt for A History of Violence (2005)
Unfortunately, I haven't seen Cinderella Man's Giamatti, a strong favorite up until a few weeks ago, when Syriana's Clooney's stocks started rising. In the end it's going to be a race between the two men, even though I wish Brokeback Mountain's Gyllenhaal had more chances, since he played yet another gay character (YES, this was definitely our year!!) and was great. Crash's Dillon was very good and I read that A History of Violence's Hurt was fantastic, although in a smaller role. He has also already won an Oscar, so he's really a long shot. I'd put my money on Clooney, since he was nominated for 3 awards tonight and had way too much competition in the other two categories for him to even have a shot, so this one would be a way for the Academy to reward a very productive year for him.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role:
Amy Adams for Junebug (2005)
Catherine Keener for Capote (2005)
Frances McDormand for North Country (2005)
Rachel Weisz for The Constant Gardener (2005)
Michelle Williams for Brokeback Mountain (2005)
I haven't seen either Junebug or North Country, so I can't speak for those two performances, but the other three were absolutely great. The favorite is The Constant Gardener's Weisz, but Brokeback Mountain's Williams is the dark horse in a race that is often used to make up for awards that can't be handed out in other categories (Williams' win is the only real possible acting Oscar for the movie that is the favorite to win Best Picture). Too bad for Capote's Keener, a great actress that is often overlooked. She reminds me of Joan Allen in this respect. I really like her, but I'm afraid that this isn't her year. By the way, Weisz was absolutely great, so her win would be well deserved.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen:
Crash (2004) - Paul Haggis, Robert Moresco
Good Night, and Good Luck. (2005) - George Clooney, Grant Heslov
Match Point (2005) - Woody Allen
The Squid and the Whale (2005) - Noah Baumbach
Syriana (2005) - Stephen Gaghan
Crash will win this award, even just to make up for other nominations that won't translate into a statuette. It deserves it, since the story and the writing were top notch, but so were Good Night, and Good Luck's, Syriana's, and, above all, Match Point's. I haven't seen The Squid and the Whale, but a win for Woody Allen, back in shape after years of misfires, would have been a nice acknowledgment.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published:
Brokeback Mountain (2005) - Larry McMurtry, Diana Ossana
Capote (2005) - Dan Futterman
The Constant Gardener (2005) - Jeffrey Caine
A History of Violence (2005) - Josh Olson
Munich (2005) - Tony Kushner, Eric Roth
Brokeback Mountain will take home this Oscar, one of the most deserved of the night, since the whole movie, one of the best in years, generated from an 11 page magazine story. Whoever is able to turn such a short story into a full fledged, deep and passionate script, deserves an Oscar. I saw all the other nominees, except for A History of Violence, and they would all deserve it, but this one is already in Brokeback's column.

As for the other categories, I hope King Kong takes home all 3 technical awards it's been nominated for, since I liked the movie and it deserves these 3 Oscars, and it would also be a nice follow up for director Peter Jackson, whose previous effort, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, swept up 11 (out of 11!!) Academy Awards two years ago.

A movie that will surely win a lot of technical prizes is certainly Memoirs of a Geisha, which was, not surprisingly, shut out of all main categories given the little interest shown by the public and the lukewarm reception by critics.

The ceremony's host, Jon Stewart, is a newbie, and let's hope he does as good a job as he does on his The Daily Show. In any case, it might end up being a pretty lame ceremony, given that most of the main categories have already been decided. Or so we think.

I guess we'll just have to tune in to find out...