2182 – Doomsday (?)

Scientists have identified a fairly large asteroid that has a pretty good chance to hit our planet in 2182, causing widespread destruction even mass extinctions:

A massive asteroid might crash into Earth in the year 2182, scientists have warned.

The asteroid, called 1999 RQ36, has a 1-in-1,000 chance of actually hitting the Earth at some point before the year 2200, but is most likely to hit us on 24th September 2182.

It was first discovered in 1999 and is more than 1,800 feet across. If an asteroid of this size hit the Earth it would cause widespread devastation and possible mass extinction.

And scientists say that any attempt to try and divert the asteroid will have to take place more than 100 years before it is due to hit to have any chance of success.

If the asteroid had not been spotted until after 2080 it would be impossible to divert it from its target, they warned in a new research paper.

While the odds may seem long, they are far shorter than that of the asteroid Apophis, which currently has a 1 in 250,000 chance of striking Earth in 2036.

Asteroid 1999 RQ36 is part of the Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHA) group, which all have the possibility of hitting the Earth due to their orbits and are all considered likely to cause damage.

Even though the asteroid’s orbit is well-known thanks to 290 different observations by telescopes and 13 radar measurements there is uncertainty about its path because of the so-called Yarkovsky effect.

This effect, first discovered in 2003 and named after a Russian engineer, is produced by the way an asteroid absorbs energy from the sun and re-radiates it into space as heat. This can subtly alter the asteroid’s flight path.

Sansaturio said: ‘The consequence of this complex dynamic is not just the likelihood of a comparatively large impact, but also that a realistic deflection procedure (path deviation) could only be made before the impact in 2080, and more easily, before 2060.'

She added: ‘If this object had been discovered after 2080, the deflection would require a technology that is not currently available.

‘Therefore, this example suggests that impact monitoring, which up to date does not cover more than 80 or 100 years, may need to encompass more than one century.

‘Thus, the efforts to deviate this type of objects could be conducted with moderate resources, from a technological and financial point of view.’

So although the odds seem low, it has a fairly good chance of hitting and we only have about 70 years to make an attempt at altering its path.  But given the lack of worldwide cooperation on such issues (or any issues for that matter) nothing is likely to get done.

Likely, poorer countries will expect richer ones to do what needs to be done, while rich countries will bicker about how much each one should invest in the venture, with smaller countries opining that given their physical size, larger countries, which are more likely to get a direct hit than say Belgium, should invest more regardless of their total wealth.

May the Gods (?) help our little, defenseless blue home.