Wednesday, November 16, 2005

Shouldn't we be prepared to face the threat of an asteroid hitting the planet?

After all, it has happened countless times in Earth's geological past, and it will happen again. That's a mathematical certainty. And that's what a group of astronauts has realized and they decided to raise public awareness on the issue. They said:
Imagine last year's tsunami, last month's earthquake in Pakistan, and Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma all rolled into one -- and then some. If nations can't handle those calamities, what's going to happen when an asteroid collides with Earth?
Apparently, there is a small asteroid already on a possible collision course with Earth, and the small discrepancy that right now puts it passing just to the side of the planet could easily be wiped out by unforeseen events:
In 30 years, there is a 1-in-5,500 chance that a smallish asteroid will land a bull's eye on our planet. At 360 yards wide, it could take out New York City and much of the surrounding area.

Fortunately, experts believe further observations of the asteroid, 99942 Apophis, will almost certainly rule out an impact in 2036. Nevertheless, it's precisely that kind of predictable and preventable threat -- and the thought of being ill-prepared for it -- that alarms the world's normally intrepid spacefarers who are calling for action.
The scientists are saying that the current technology is far enough along that an asteroid could be deflected before hitting Earth, so why not get ready? Do we really want to wait until it's too late?
"The possible consequences are way worse than your run-of-the-mill natural disasters like earthquakes and tsunamis and hurricanes. As bad as they may be, this can dwarf them."
The association created by the scientists wants NASA to expand its Spaceguard Survey, a program that discovers and tracks near-Earth objects -- asteroids and comets -- that are at least two-thirds of a mile across. So far, 807 of an estimated 1,100 of these big rocky asteroids have been discovered in the inner solar system along with 57 comets; California's Jet Propulsion Laboratory is plotting their future tracks, hoping to rule out any impact, since:
An asteroid two-thirds of a mile wide, at impact, would be enough to easily take out a good-sized European country. By comparison, an asteroid or comet believed to be six to seven miles across wiped out the dinosaurs 65 million years ago.
The asteroid that could potentially pose a threat to us is called Apophis and will whiz by Earth in 2029, passing within an unnerving 18,640 miles. That's a few thousand miles closer than many communications satellites and 220,000 miles closer than the moon. Worse news is that in 2036 it will move in even closer, leading to the 1-in-5,500 chance it will strike.

Even though the asteroid will probably not hit the planet, the question is, at what point do you begin to spend hundreds of millions or billions of dollars in order to do something? Furthermore, are some places on the planet more dispensable than others?
The point of impact, for instance, could be inadvertently shifted from one part of the world to another by an intervening spacecraft, jeopardizing one country instead of another. Who's liable if an asteroid-deflecting mission goes awry? Indeed, who decides if such a mission is needed and how far in advance should that decision be made?
One way of solving the potential problem of an incoming asteroid would be a nuclear-powered (to quickly get to the asteroid) spacecraft that could either land on the asteroid and apply a small but continuous force over months in order to alter its Earth-smashing course, or hover above the asteroid and use its gravity to push it aside. Any sensational last-minute asteroid crackups "Armageddon" style wouldn't work, since the pieces could wind up on a collision course with Earth themselves. The only problem with this scenario is that the technology for such an "asteroid tugboat" is on hold because of budget cuts.

One thing is certain. It's only a matter of time before planet Earth is hit again by an asteroid and I don't think we can even remotely imagine the amount of devastation it could cause to the human species and every other on this world.

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