Oscar stats

A wealth of data, trivia, and facts on the upcoming Academy Awards from Scott Feinberg, considered one of the best Oscars forecasters in the whole world.

From his blog:

• The film with the most nominations has won best picture in 14 of the past 20 years. (Last year, however, was an exception, with “Slumdog Millionaire” triumphing over “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.”) This year there is a tie between two films: “Avatar” and “The Hurt Locker.” Very helpful indeed.

• Most films that have won best picture also garnered nominations for their director, screenwriter, film editor, and at least one actor. This year, only 2 best picture nominees have done so: “The Hurt Locker” and “Inglourious Basterds.”

• Should “Avatar,” “District 9,” “A Serious Man,” or “Up” win best picture, it would become only the ninth film to win best picture without an acting nomination in 65 years, or since the best picture race was capped at 5 nominees. That statistic is not particularly important anymore, though, since the best picture field has been expanded to 10 nominees. What is of much greater importance is what happened from 1931/1932 through 1943, when the best picture field last featured 10 or more nominees: only one film won best picture without an acting nomination, “Grand Hotel” (1931/1932). In other words, the rule still holds true.

• In the past 31 years (the time period for which widespread data is available), no best picture winner has domestically earned less than $43,984,230, the box-office take of “The Last Emperor” (1987). That means that a win by any of the following best picture nominees — unless they get a huge boost from their best picture nominations — would establish a new record for the lowest-grossing best picture winner: “The Hurt Locker” ($12,671,105), “An Education” ($8,795,228), or “A Serious Man” ($9,228,768).

• Should either “Avatar” or The Blind Side” win best picture, it would become the first film to win best picture without a nomination for best adapted screenplay or best original screenplay in 12 years. The last was “Titanic” (1997).

• Should “An Education,” “The Blind Side,” “District 9,” “A Serious Man,” or “Up” win best picture, it would become the first film to win best picture without a nomination for best director in 20 years. The last was “Driving Miss Daisy” (1989).

• Should “An Education,” “The Blind Side,” “A Serious Man,” “Up,” or “Up in the Air” win best picture, it would become the first film to win best picture without a nomination for best film editing in 29 years. The last was “Ordinary People” (1980).

• Should “Up” win best picture, it would become the first film with a PG-rating or lower to win best picture in 20 years. The last was “Driving Miss Daisy” (1989).

• Should best director nominee Jason Reitman (“Up in the Air”) win, he will become the youngest best director Oscar winner in history, breaking a record that has been held for 78 years by “Skippy” director Norman Taurog (who was 32 years, 8 months, and 18 days of age when he won on November 10, 1931) by 4 months and 2 days.

• Should best actor nominee Jeff Bridges (“Crazy Heart”) win — something he is widely expected to do based on his Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild wins — he will have waited longer between first nod and first win than all but 3 others in the 81 year history of the Oscars: Henry Fonda, who waited 41 years between his best actor nod for “The Grapes of Wrath” (1940) and best actor win for “On Golden Pond” (1981); Alan Arkin, who waited 40 years between his best actor nomination for “The Russians Are Coming! The Russians Are Coming!” (1966) and his best supporting actor win for “Little Miss Sunshine” (2006); and Jack Palance, who waited 39 years between his best supporting actor nod for “Sudden Death” (1952) and his best supporting actor win for “City Slickers” (1991).

• Should best actor nominee Morgan Freeman (“Invictus”) win — something he is widely expected not to do based on his Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild losses — he would become the second oldest best actor winner. On March 7, his age will be 72 years, 276 days. The record holder: Henry Fonda (76 years, 317 days).

• Should best actress nominee Sandra Bullock (“The Blind Side”) win — something she is widely expected to do based on her Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild wins — only two Oscar-winning performances will have come in movies that grossed more money domestically than hers ($237,914,805 and counting). Those two: best supporting actor Heath Ledger (“The Dark Knight,” 2008) and best actor Tom Hanks (“Forrest Gump,” 1994).

• Should best actress nominee Carey Mulligan (“An Education”) win — something she is widely expected not to do based on her Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild losses — she would become the fourth youngest best actress winner. On March 7, her age will be 24 years, 279 days. Those younger when they won: Marlee Matlin (21 years, 218 days), Janet Gaynor (22 years, 222 days), and Joan Fontaine (24 years, 127 days).

• Should best actress nominee Gabby Sidibe (“Precious”) win — something she is widely expected not to do based on her Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild losses — she would become only the fifth actress to win the best actress Oscar for her big screen debut. The others: Shirley Booth (“Come Back, Little Sheba,” 1952), Julie Andrews (“Mary Poppins,” 1964), Barbara Streisand (“Funny Girl,” 1968), and Marlee Matlin (“Children of a Lesser God,” 1986).

• Should best actress nominee Meryl Streep (“Julie & Julia”) lose, she will extend her record number of acting losses from 13 to 14. Her closest living competition is way behind her: Jack Nicholson (9), Peter O’Toole (8), and Al Pacino (7).

• Should best supporting actor nominee Christoph Waltz (“Inglourious Basterds”) win — something he is widely expected to do based on his Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild wins — he will become the first actor to win an Oscar for a performance in a Quentin Tarantino-directed film. The others who have been nominated but lost for their work with the celebrated “actors’ director”: John Travolta (“Pulp Fiction,” 1994); Samuel L. Jackson (“Pulp Fiction,” 1994); Uma Thurman (“Pulp Fiction,” 1994); and Robert Forster (“Jackie Brown,” 1997) for best supporting actor.

• Should best supporting actor nominee Christoph Waltz (“Inglourious Basterds”) win — something he is widely expected to do based on his Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild wins — he will have given only the eighth performance delivered largely or entirely in a foreign language to win an acting Oscar. The others: Sophia Loren (“Two Women,” 1961) for best actress; Robert De Niro (“The Godfather, Part II,” 1974) for best supporting actor; Meryl Streep (“Sophie’s Choice,” 1982) for best actress; Marlee Matlin (“Children of a Lesser God,” 1986) for best actress; Roberto Benigni (“Life Is Beautiful,” 1998) for best actor; Benicio Del Toro (“Traffic,” 2000) for best supporting actor; Marion Cotillard (“La Vie En Rose,” 2007) for best actress; and Penelope Cruz (“Vicky Cristina Barcelona,” 2008) for best supporting actress.

• Should best supporting actor nominee Christopher Plummer (“The Last Station”) win — something he is widely expected not to do based on his Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild losses — he would become the oldest best supporting actor winner. On March 7, his age will be 80 years, 84 days days. The current record holder: George Burns (80 years, 69 days).

• Should best supporting actress nominee Anna Kendrick (“Up in the Air”) win — something she is widely expected not to do based on her Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild losses, as well as having to compete in the same category with castmate Vera Farmiga — she would become the seventh youngest best supporting actress winner. On March 7, her age will be 24 years, 209 days. Those younger when they won: Tatum O’Neal (10 years, 148 days), Anna Paquin (11 years, 240 days), Patty Duke (16 years, 115 days), Anne Baxter (23 years, 310 days), Teresa Wright (24 years, 128 days), and Goldie Hawn (24 years, 137 days).

• Should best actor nominees George Clooney (“Up in the Air”) or Morgan Freeman (“Invictus”), best actress nominee Helen Mirren (“The Last Station”), and/or best supporting actress nominee Penelope Cruz win, he and/or she will become the 17th person to win 2 Oscars within 5 years. The others: Walter Brennan, Bette Davis, Olivia de Havilland, Sally Field, Jodie Foster, Tom Hanks, Katharine Hepburn, Glenda Jackson, Sean Penn, Anthony Quinn, Luise Rainer, Jason Robards, Jr., Kevin Spacey, Meryl Streep, Hilary Swank, Spencer Tracy, and Peter Ustinov.

Naturally, his forecast that my beloved Meryl Streep will likely not win her WAY OVERDUE third Oscar, after her dazzling turn as Julia Child in last years’ Julie & Julia, was totally heartbreaking.