Wednesday, September 28, 2005

Why do we destroy the only home we have?

I read this article on The Independent online and it worried me and saddened me to no end. We've been ruining this planet since the Industrial Revolution began, and we keep doing it today, at a faster and faster pace. And apparently, at least in the northern hemisphere (that's OUR hemisphere, people,) we have passed the point of no return, and things are only gonna get worse:
A record loss of sea ice in the Arctic this summer has convinced scientists that the northern hemisphere may have crossed a critical threshold beyond which the climate may never recover. Scientists fear that the Arctic has now entered an irreversible phase of warming which will accelerate the loss of the polar sea ice that has helped to keep the climate stable for thousands of years.

The greatest fear is that the Arctic has reached a "tipping point" beyond which nothing can reverse the continual loss of sea ice and with it the massive land glaciers of Greenland, which will raise sea levels dramatically.
According to the experts, this is the biggest loss of Arctic sea ice in the summer months in hundreds and possibly thousands of years. And they point out that this is not a one time low, on the contrary, "it is the fourth year in a row that the sea ice in August has fallen below the monthly downward trend - a clear sign that melting has accelerated."
"This will be four Septembers in a row that we've seen a downward trend. The feeling is we are reaching a tipping point or threshold beyond which sea ice will not recover."
Apparently, the extent of the sea ice in September, the last summer month, is the most valuable indicator of its health, and this year's record melt means that more of the long-term ice formed over many winters - the so called multi-year ice - has disappeared than at any time in recorded history.

Unfortunately, as more and more sea ice is lost during the summer, greater expanses of open ocean become exposed to the sun, and this in turn increases the rate at which heat is absorbed in the Arctic region. In fact, since sea ice reflects up to 80 per cent of sunlight hitting it, while dark water absorbs most of it, the overall heat content increases automatically.
Current computer models suggest that the Arctic will be entirely ice-free during summer by the year 2070 but some scientists now believe that even this dire prediction may be over-optimistic, said Professor Peter Wadhams, an Arctic ice specialist at Cambridge University.

"When the ice becomes so thin it breaks up mechanically rather than thermodynamically. So these predictions may well be on the over-optimistic side," he said.

As the sea ice melts, and more of the sun's energy is absorbed by the exposed ocean, a positive feedback is created leading to the loss of yet more ice, Professor Wadhams said.

"If anything we may be underestimating the dangers. The computer models may not take into account collaborative positive feedback," he said.
Since sea ice keeps a cap on frigid water, keeping it cold and protecting it from heating up, losing it is likely to have major repercussions on our climate, also because:
Changing land into ocean and creating a huge area of open ocean where there was once land will have a very big impact on other climate parameters as well.
I cannot even imagine that, if those estimates are indeed over-optimistic, the Arctic might be gone during my lifetime.

And that also means higher sea levels, which translate into more coastal area flooding, major metropolitan areas becoming un-inhabitable, and entire islands disappearing completely under the sea (some of the most gorgeous heavens on earth will be lost.)

A warmer ocean also means many more of those monstrous storms that just hit the south of the country in the past month. Imagine a hurricane season with storm after storm making landfall at categories 3 and above, one after the other. There wouldn't be any time to clean up and rebuild. The coast would have to be abandoned. Higher categories than 5 might have to be introduced (they said Rita would have been a category 6, if it existed.)

Furthermore, a warmer ocean would mean a completely different environment for all the animals living in it. Major migrations and/or extinctions might be unavoidable by many species of fish and mammals alike.

And obviously, hurricanes wouldn't be the only natural threat that would likely intensify with higher and warmer oceans. The added moisture in the air would certainly cause more tornadoes, hail storms, flooding, rainfall. Suddenly, a Blade Runner scenario of perennial rain doesn't look that far into the future anymore, does it?

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Since The Independent requires a subscription, you can read the same article here, from Common Dreams News Center.

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