Iraqi Constitution update

Well, this is getting complicated to follow. According to this BBC article, the constitution approval in Saturday's referendum is all but ensured, in spite of the eleventh-hour intervention of the Iraqi parliament meant to sugarcoat it for the Sunnis and trick them into not rejecting it.

First, there are issues of security in the Sunnis territories, the heart of the insurgency, that might impede many eligible voters from casting their votes:

Senior Western officials believe the credibility of the referendum is on the line.

If significant numbers of the Sunni minority are not able to cast their ballots, they fear the entire process could be undermined.

After largely boycotting last January's parliamentary elections, this time the Sunni community is mobilising to vote because it knows how much is at stake.

Then, then there is the whole issue of how the Sunnis will vote as a block:

Political and religious leaders - both moderate and radical - are united in calling on their community to vote No in the referendum.

The biggest fear not only of the Sunnis but also of Western officials and even some members of the Shia dominated government, is that the draft constitution could exacerbate sectarian violence and ultimately result in the break-up of the country along religious and ethnic lines.

And then there is the federalism issue:

Under the federal system envisaged in the draft constitution, the central government in Baghdad would only have exclusive control over foreign, defence and financial policy. Baghdad would not even have control over the police, nor oil and gas fields which come on-stream in the future.

Critically, the draft constitution also allows provinces which have not already come together to form a region to do so after holding a referendum.

The Kurds already have their own autonomous region in the north and want it extended to include the oil-rich area around Kirkuk. The Sunnis suspect the Shia want to establish their own region in the south including the huge Rumayla oil-fields which produce 1.6 million barrels per day. That would leave the minority Sunnis with a land-locked region in the centre of the country consisting mostly of desert and bereft of natural resources.

Little wonder the Sunnis are desperate to vote against the draft constitution being offered up in Saturday's referendum.

No wonder at all. I'd vote no as well. But the leaders of the Sunni community are concerned that even if they do get the maximum turn-out, the vote would still be extremely tight, unless some Shia groups join the no-camp at the last minute. And no one really knows how likely that is.

And this little tidbit to finish it all off:

Even the spokesman for the Shia prime minister, Leith Kubba, seems to hope the constitution will be rejected in Saturday's vote or at the very least re-written if it passes.

What a mess. Saturday is going to be an interesting day.