Iraq Constitution update

So the third deadline passed yesterday, and still no agreement. The Sunnis are worried they'll be left behind, and it all comes down to the oil riches and the prominency of Islamic rule in everyday life:

Sunnis have expressed concerns that allowing for federalism may lead to the creation of an autonomous Shia area in southern Iraq - like the Kurdish north but under Iran's influence.

The Sunnis fear greater autonomy for the Kurdish north and Shia south could compromise their share of revenues from those oil-rich regions.

Can you imagine the disaster if Iraq turns into another Iran?

The Sunnis didn't vote in the January elections, so now they have a minority in Parliament.
Shias and Kurds could therefore, theoretically, approve the Constitution without Sunni consent, and send it to its scheduled October referendum... just to see it being rejected by 3 Sunni provinces.
This would in turn mean no Constitution, a dissolved Parliament, and new elections in which the Sunnis probably wouldn't commit the same mistake twice and actually go vote, which would give them a stronger voice in the next Parliament and in the future talks for a new Constitution.

What to do?

Well, apparently many are worried about the situation, including the Sunni-led countries neighboring Iraq and Bush, whose legacy depends on a successful, democratic, and free Iraq.

Right now, things don't look too bright for that legacy:

The draft of the new constitution describes Islam as "a main source" of legislation and stipulates that no law may contradict Islamic principles.

It also says a group of provinces is entitled to form a "region", which can then expect a specified share of the national budget.

[...]

[S]ecular-minded Iraqis - whether Sunni, Shia or Kurd - are deeply concerned about the direction the country is taking.

[...]

Mixed marriages between Sunni and Shia, once taken for granted, are becoming problematic.

In many parts of the country, women dare not walk bare-headed in the street.

And reports from parts of the lawless north-west paint a grim picture of Taleban-style rule by radical Sunni militants.

And this leaves Bush in a very tight spot.

He'd like for the democratization process to be sped up, so that he can start bringing troops home next year, in time for the fall's midterm elections, in order for the GOP to avoid losing too many races.

But if he pushes too hard, he might push the whole thing off a cliff, and then he'll be the one who's screwed... in the history books.